As 2026 nears its end, Vietnam’s rice export sector is poised for a boost in value, driven by recovering international prices and increased demand from key markets. The nation has already shipped about 5.7 million tonnes of rice by mid-August, with expectations to reach 7.7 million tonnes by year’s end. Despite these strong numbers, the forecasted export earnings of US$3.9 billion mark a 4% decline from the previous year, largely due to weaker average prices in the early months. However, a price rebound began in July, with a 5.8% year-on-year increase, suggesting potential improvements in export revenue if the trend persists.
The global rice market dynamics are also shifting in Vietnam’s favor. A predicted supply-demand deficit for the 2026-27 crop year, alongside record-high global trade, could bolster Vietnam’s export prospects. Furthermore, concerns over a possible strong El Niño have countries looking to beef up their food reserves. The Philippines, Vietnam’s largest rice importer, is set to continue its purchasing spree, aiming for around 5.6 million tonnes in the 2026-27 crop year. Meanwhile, China is boosting its imports, especially of broken rice used for animal feed, presenting more opportunities for Vietnamese exporters.
Additional markets may contribute to Vietnam’s growth in rice exports. Nigeria is anticipated to encounter a substantial rice supply shortfall, and Kenya has temporarily removed import duties on white rice under a quota system. Vietnamese exporters are also tapping into premium market segments where high-quality, low-emission rice varieties are fetching over US$1,000 per tonne in places like Japan, the European Union, and Australia.
Despite this promising outlook, challenges remain for Vietnam’s rice industry. The Philippines might impose further safeguard duties on rice imports from Vietnam, potentially raising the total tariff above 35%, which could impact shipments to this key market. Indonesia’s robust domestic production and high reserves likely mean it won’t import rice this year. Additionally, Vietnamese rice must compete on price with India and Pakistan in several African markets. Thailand is strengthening its market share in China, and Cambodia is expanding its exports of fragrant rice, adding to the competitive pressure.
Moreover, rising costs for fertilizer, transportation, and energy are straining farmers and exporters. The threat of an El Niño event could lead to drought and saltwater intrusion by late 2026 or early 2027, posing risks to the upcoming winter-spring rice crop. While recovering prices, surging demand, and interest in premium rice varieties offer positive signs for Vietnam’s export earnings, tariffs, competition, and weather-related threats remain significant concerns.